A Fantasy Held Together by Wishful Thinking
President Trump keeps talking as if regional “Muslim neighbors” are lining up to step into Gaza, rebuild it, stabilize it, and somehow turn generations of political failure into a functioning civil order. But let’s be brutally honest: they aren’t. They know the historical record far too well. They’ve lived through the fallout of militant factions, rogue groups, and political spillover that have destabilized their borders before.
This isn’t bias. It isn’t prejudice. It’s hard memory. Jordan lived through Black September. Lebanon endured years of civil conflict, fueled in part by armed Palestinian factions trying to reshape the political order. Egypt has repeatedly grappled with infiltration from groups tied to Gaza. These governments look at the current situation, and see not an opportunity, but a threat, a threat to their stability, their sovereignty, and in some cases, their survival.
And yet Trump’s plan leans on them as if decades of trauma will magically vanish.
Arab Leaders Talk a Big Game, But Won’t Touch Gaza With a Ten-Foot Pole
Every time a crisis erupts, Arab leaders appear on camera offering fiery speeches about solidarity. But the truth is simple: lip service is cheap. It keeps their streets calm, it satisfies domestic audiences, and it costs them nothing.
But real responsibility? Real intake of refugees? Real security control? That’s where the door slams shut.
Look no further than the recently released Palestinian prisoners who found no Arab state willing to take them in. That silence wasn’t an accident. That was policy. These governments have learned from bitter experience that importing politically radicalized factions can tear a country apart. They aren’t going to repeat history.
The Jordan Question: A Kingdom Walking on a Tightrope
Which brings us to the elephant in the room: Jordan. Jordan is significantly larger than Israel, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank, combined. Historically, the region east of the river was part of the larger Palestinian geographic space. So why isn’t Amman stepping in now? Why not support a second Arab state on Jordanian soil to absorb Gaza’s population?
Because the Hashemite monarchy knows exactly what would happen.
It has spent decades balancing tribes, demographics, and political loyalties. Importing a massive new population tied to a volatile conflict could destabilize the kingdom in a heartbeat. The royal family isn’t about to gamble the survival of the state on a symbolic gesture that other Arab governments themselves refuse to make.
Trump may believe Jordan has a moral duty. Jordan believes it has a duty to survive.
Bottom Line: The Harsh Reality Washington Keeps Ignoring
The U.S. administration is betting on Arab partners who, behind closed doors, want nothing to do with governing, demilitarizing, or rebuilding Gaza. Their stance isn’t mysterious. It’s not hidden. It’s been the same for decades: they will speak loudly, but act cautiously.
Trump can insist all he wants that the neighborhood must help. But the neighborhood has made its position painfully clear:
Gaza is a problem they want left at arm’s length. Trump, Witkoff, Kushner, and the others are being played as Mohammed bin Salman, Deputy Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and Second Deputy Prime Minister visits the Trump White House to seek F-35 fighter jets in return for a $1 trillion investment over the coming years. And, just who is he planning to fight? Not Israel. Probably Iran.
We are so screwed.
— Steve
