President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu put forth what they characterize as a bold new 20-point plan that promises to turn Gaza into a terror-free zone and rebuild it from the ground up.
But at what cost to Israel’s safety? With hostages set for release, Hamas facing demilitarization, and a U.S.-led international force stepping in, every step of this agreement carries high stakes. A single misstep by a rogue hardcore faction could blow up everything, making the difference between the most consequential peace proposal in years and an absolute disaster for Israel.
Let’s see if Hamas will accept these terms unilaterally.
1. Potential Dangers to Israel: Incomplete Demilitarization
The plan hinges on Hamas and other factions fully demilitarizing Gaza.
- Risk: If weapons caches, tunnels, or militant networks remain hidden or are rebuilt covertly, Israel could face renewed attacks.
Threat type: Direct military threat, rocket or tunnel-based attacks, asymmetric warfare.
Hamas or Factions Re-entering Governance
The plan forbids Hamas from participating in governance, but enforcement relies on international monitors.
- Risk: Covert political influence could undermine security and aid implementation.
Threat type: Political destabilization, undermining trust in transitional authority.
Reliance on the International Stabilization Force (ISF)
Israel’s security depends on the effectiveness and impartiality of the ISF and the newly trained Palestinian police.
- Risk: Poorly trained forces, corruption, or infiltration by hostile elements could weaken border security.
Threat type: Security vacuum at borders, smuggling of weapons, attacks on Israel.
Humanitarian Aid Mismanagement
Aid flows are central to stabilizing Gaza.
- Risk: Diversion of aid to militant groups could strengthen future attacks.
Threat type: Indirect military threat through resource misappropriation.
Delays in Hostage Release
The agreement assumes the prompt release of hostages.
- Risk: Deliberate delay could be used to extract concessions or undermine Israeli public trust.
Threat type: Political and humanitarian leverage used by Hamas.
Regional Guarantees May Fail
The plan calls on “regional partners” to ensure compliance.
- Risk: Regional states may fail to enforce compliance, leaving Israel exposed.
Threat type: Strategic vulnerability, erosion of Israel’s deterrence.
2. Penalties or Consequences if the Plan is Violated
The plan does not explicitly detail legal or military penalties, but implied consequences include:
For Hamas or Other Factions
Violation: Rebuilding weapons, engaging in terror, or participating in governance.
Consequences:
- Israel could resume military operations in Gaza, potentially unilaterally.
- International legitimacy for punitive action may exist if ISF verification fails.
- Suspension or reversal of prisoner releases or aid distribution.
For Israel
Violation: Failure to release hostages, detain promised individuals, or meet withdrawal milestones.
Consequences:
- Loss of credibility with international guarantors.
- Suspension of aid or diplomatic support by the U.S. and international partners.
- Potential political backlash from the Palestinian Authority, neighboring states, and humanitarian organizations.
For International Actors (ISF, Donors, Guarantors)
Violation: Failure to enforce demilitarization or secure aid distribution.
Consequences:
- Destabilization of Gaza persists.
- Israel may take unilateral measures, creating tension with international actors.
- Conditional Penalties Linked to Humanitarian Measures
- Delays in compliance could delay: the Release of prisoners and deceased, the Deployment of aid and reconstruction projects.
This indirectly penalizes violators through the slowed normalization of conditions in Gaza.
3. Key Risk Areas for Israel’s Security
Terror resurgence
- Residual Hamas networks or rogue factions
- Requires constant intelligence, verification by ISF
Border breaches
- Smuggling of weapons via tunnels or open crossings
- ISF coordination with Israel and Egypt is essential
Political interference
- Hamas or other factions influencing transitional governance
- Monitoring effectiveness, transparency in the Board of Peace operations
Aid diversion
- Misappropriation of humanitarian resources
- International oversight, UN/Red Crescent monitoring
Arms diversion
- Misappropriation of captured arms
- Transfer of weapons to other insurgent groups in other countries
Hostage/Prisoner leverage
- Non-compliance in releases
- Requires enforcement mechanisms or leverage from guarantors
Summary Assessment
Strategic Risk: The plan reduces immediate military confrontation risk if fully implemented but relies heavily on verification, international enforcement, and compliance by all parties.
Operational Risk: Israel may remain vulnerable during the staged withdrawal and before complete demilitarization.
Political Risk: Any perceived or actual violation could undermine trust, destabilize the region, or trigger unilateral Israeli actions.
Enforcement Gap: There is no clearly defined punitive mechanism beyond conditional actions, such as resuming military operations or halting aid.
The 20-point plan reads in full:
- Gaza will be a deradicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.
- Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough.
- If both sides agree to this proposal, the war will immediately end. Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed upon line to prepare for a hostage release. During this time, all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment, will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until conditions are met for the complete staged withdrawal.
- Within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned.
- Once all hostages are released, Israel will release 250 life sentence prisoners plus 1700 Gazans who were detained after October 7th 2023, including all women and children detained in that context. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans.
- Once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty. Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries.
- Upon acceptance of this agreement, full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip. At a minimum, aid quantities will be consistent with what was included in the January 19, 2025, agreement regarding humanitarian aid, including rehabilitation of infrastructure (water, electricity, sewage), rehabilitation of hospitals and bakeries, and entry of necessary equipment to remove rubble and open roads.
- Entry of distribution and aid in the Gaza Strip will proceed without interference from the two parties through the United Nations and its agencies, and the Red Crescent, in addition to other international institutions not associated in any manner with either party. Opening the Rafah crossing in both directions will be subject to the same mechanism implemented under the January 19, 2025 agreement.
- Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza. This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads of State to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair. This body will set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program, as outlined in various proposals, including President Trump’s peace plan in 2020 and the Saudi-French proposal, and can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza. This body will call on best international standards to create modern and efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is conducive to attracting investment.
- A Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energize Gaza will be created by convening a panel of experts who have helped birth some of the thriving modern miracle cities in the Middle East. Many thoughtful investment proposals and exciting development ideas have been crafted by well-meaning international groups, and will be considered to synthesize the security and governance frameworks to attract and facilitate these investments that will create jobs, opportunity, and hope for future Gaza.
- A special economic zone will be established with preferred tariff and access rates to be negotiated with participating countries.
- No one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return. We will encourage people to stay and offer them the opportunity to build a better Gaza.
- Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt. There will be a process of demilitarization of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning, and supported by an internationally funded buy back and reintegration program all verified by the independent monitors. New Gaza will be fully committed to building a prosperous economy and to peaceful coexistence with their neighbors.
- A guarantee will be provided by regional partners to ensure that Hamas, and the factions, comply with their obligations and that New Gaza poses no threat to its neighbors or its people.
- The United States will work with Arab and international partners to develop a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) to immediately deploy in Gaza. The ISF will train and provide support to vetted Palestinian police forces in Gaza, and will consult with Jordan and Egypt who have extensive experience in this field. This force will be the long-term internal security solution. The ISF will work with Israel and Egypt to help secure border areas, along with newly trained Palestinian police forces. It is critical to prevent munitions from entering Gaza and to facilitate the rapid and secure flow of goods to rebuild and revitalize Gaza. A deconfliction mechanism will be agreed upon by the parties.
- Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. As the ISF establishes control and stability, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw based on standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization that will be agreed upon between the IDF, ISF, the guarantors, and the Unites States, with the objective of a secure Gaza that no longer poses a threat to Israel, Egypt, or its citizens. Practically, the IDF will progressively hand over the Gaza territory it occupies to the ISF according to an agreement they will make with the transitional authority until they are withdrawn completely from Gaza, save for a security perimeter presence that will remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat.
- In the event Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the above, including the scaled-up aid operation, will proceed in the terror-free areas handed over from the IDF to the ISF.
- An interfaith dialogue process will be established based on the values of tolerance and peaceful co-existence to try and change mindsets and narratives of Palestinians and Israelis by emphasizing the benefits that can be derived from peace.
- While Gaza re-development advances and when the PA reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.
- The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence.
